Marketing Performance Modeling
Know where the next advertising dollar goes.
In almost every budget we model, a fifth of the spend is already returning nothing — and a fifth to two-fifths is doing most of the work. Insights ranks every placement by the revenue it actually produced and moves your budget across that line. No extra spend. No agency incentive.
Eight years, one named client, on the record
Florida Lottery — five straight years of growth, then a real reason it stopped.
Total ticket sales are public record: Florida Lottery grew every year for five years straight, from $6.7B in fiscal 2018 to a peak of $9.8B in fiscal 2023, while the advertising budget behind them held flat. The first year alone added $450M — and growth didn't taper from there. It ran 3% to 21% a year, every year, through five full cycles.
The first decline of the period landed in fiscal 2024, the same year Hard Rock Bet relaunched legal sports betting across Florida. Sales are down two years running since. Not because the model ran out of room — because a new product now competes for the same discretionary dollar.
Our implementation partner, Clarity i2 (formerly Bottomline Analytics), attributes a 24.8% average annual improvement in marketing ROI to the reallocation itself — the part of this growth the method can actually claim. In one fiscal year, 16% of the ad budget was found to be driving 59% of ad-driven revenue across 474 individual placements. That's the shape the next section describes — measured on a real advertising plan, at national scale.
Sales, national rank and sports-betting timeline: Florida OPPAGA, "Review of the Florida Lottery," annual reports 2018–2025, each verified individually. Marketing-ROI and reallocation figures: Clarity i2, published Florida Lottery case study.
Why reallocation works at all
Every advertising plan has this shape.
Spending below a channel's response threshold buys almost nothing. Spending past its saturation point buys less and less for every dollar you add. The money that matters is in between — and where that line sits moves every time your mix, your competitors or the market does.
Insights finds that line for every channel and market you run, every planning cycle, and reallocates inside it.
The real pain point this solves
The argument between marketing and finance ends here.
Marketing says the campaign worked. Finance says prove it. The CEO hears two different stories about the same quarter, and the CSO is left building a strategy on an answer nobody fully trusts.
Insights ends it with one true snapshot — not one number. It separates what advertising actually drove from everything else that moved revenue, splits that across channels, then down to every individual placement, and prices each one the same way: dollars returned per dollar spent.
So the CMO can point at a campaign running across four channels and show it returned more than it cost. Rank every campaign against every other. Say whether television beat radio last quarter, and by how much. Same accounting for all of it, so nobody in the room is arguing about the method any more.
What it will not do is tell you how a campaign nobody has run yet will perform. That is still the advertiser's art, and we would rather say so than sell you a forecast we cannot stand behind. Run it, and it gets measured on the same terms as everything else.
The headline without the caveats — what advertising returned, and which bets earned it.
A figure the model is structurally incapable of inflating — it won’t recommend a spend level it has never seen work.
Every campaign ranked by what it returned, in the units finance already trusts.
A plan built on evidence nobody upstream is going to relitigate next quarter.
What it is worth
Three more things change the quarter you start.
Drastically higher EBITDA
A 3–5% optimisation swing on an eight-figure ad budget drops straight to net earnings. You are not buying more media; you are stopping the waste.
Stronger corporate valuation
Predictable, mathematically governed customer acquisition compounds enterprise value. Marketing stops being a black-box gamble.
An unbiased referee
Agencies earn more when you advertise more. We earn nothing from your media plan — we only audit it.
How it runs
Three steps, every planning cycle. Not a loop — a spiral.
The same three steps run every cycle. What changes is where they start. Run them once and you have a plan; run them every cycle and it stops being a loop back to the same spot — Implement → Observe → Model → Optimise → Strategise → Repeat, each turn compounding on what the last one earned.
Refresh the raw data
Two years of weekly impressions and spend, by market, language, creative, campaign and daypart — matched against sales.
Model the causal relationships
Non-linear causal models learn how each placement moves revenue, and how placements move each other.
Reallocate to what performs
Set your guardrails. The engine reallocates within them and returns the plan in milliseconds.
Whether it will work for you
We gate on data quality, not company size.
We work with companies spending enough, across multiple channels, for the math to find a signal — and small enough to still move fast on what it finds. What actually decides whether it works for you is the shape of your history, not your budget.
This works precisely because it doesn't need what's disappearing. Third-party cookies are failing, browsers are killing them outright, and privacy law keeps tightening. Insights was never built on tracking an individual — only on what a market actually bought. The less you can track, the more that matters.
Historical depth
Two or more years of continuous weekly spend records, so seasonal baselines are anchored.
Channel breadth
Active spending across three or more channels at once, so cross-channel effects can be separated.
Structured inputs
Clean record-level regional or product-line data, free of systemic tracking gaps.
What this looks like
Two years. Three channels that behave nothing like each other.
104 weeks of weekly spend and sales is enough history for the model to hold these three apart — the slow build, the burst, the platform shift — instead of blurring all three into one line and calling the average an answer.
Bring two years of weekly spend across three channels. We will show you what it earned.
A strategic briefing takes forty minutes.